Demo 02 · Margin-leak calculator

What is your price file leaking?

Ten numbers, under a minute (a few more are optional). You get a range (low, likely, high) for five leaks, with every assumption on the table and editable, and the business case: the share of the leak a program has to recover to cover its cost. Nothing you type leaves this page.

33% vs 6%Pricing power is weaker than a year ago for 33% of distributors under $100M, against 6% of those over $500M. Modern Distribution Management, Jun 2026. Baird-MDM survey figures, reported in a column by the CEO of Intuilize, a pricing-software company.
13%13% of distributors under $100M say they cannot pass increases through at all. Modern Distribution Management, Jun 2026.

Not sure where to start? Take the 10-second self-check. Signing the check? Go to the business case.

Your numbers

Sample data · fictional distributor Prefilled with Meridian Sample Supply (fictional), the same $40M, 14,000-item distributor the Margin X-Ray inspects: its rebates, SPA credits, short-paid claims and freight match the X-Ray’s sample files. Smaller? Try the $15M distributor, or type over any number.

Annual revenue

$ $40.0M

Last twelve months is fine. A round number is fine. It works the same for a $10 million distributor as for a $400 million one.

Gross margin

Company-wide, from your P&L.

Active SKUs

SKUs 14,000

Items you sold in the last year.

Share of SKUs with an out-of-date cost

Your best guess. If you do not know, that is itself a finding.

Average vendor cost increase this year

Across the items that went up.

Days from a cost increase to your new price

days

From the vendor letter to the price your customers pay.

Outbound freight cost, as a share of revenue

What you paid carriers, and spent running your own trucks, to ship to customers. From your P&L.

Share of that freight billed back

Freight charged on invoices ÷ freight cost. For context: Typically only about 70% of freight cost is recovered, according to SPARXiQ’s David Bauders, writing for NAW.

Rebates and SPA credits

Rebates + SPA credits earned per year

$ $600K

What your programs say you should collect. Not sure? Estimate it below.

Rebates + SPA credits claimed

$ $480K

What you submitted to suppliers, whether or not they paid it.

Of that, actually received (optional)

$ $425K

What the suppliers paid. Rejections and short-pays are the difference. Leave it blank if they paid everything you claimed.

Not sure what you earned? Estimate itIllustrative

Purchases from suppliers that pay you a rebate, times their average program rate, plus any SPA or ship-and-debit credits you expect. Prefilled from Meridian’s sample files (fictional): about $13.0M from its rebating suppliers at 2%, plus SPA credits. Not a benchmark: use your own.

Purchases from rebating suppliers ($/yr)

Average program rate (%)

SPA / ship-and-debit credits ($/yr)

Estimated earned: $600K ($260K of rebates + $340K of SPA credits). Your claimed figure is 20% below this estimate.

For context only, never a default: According to David Bauders of SPARXiQ, a pricing firm, writing for NAW, distributor sales forces underclaim rebates by about 30%. (NAW, Dec 2023)

Rebate programs: the two drivers of claim leakage

Supplier lines with a rebate or SPA program

We belong to a buying group or co-op

Programs that run through the group

Counted only when you belong to a group.

8 programs to track: about 32 claim deadlines a year if each program claims quarterly Illustrative. Rebate & SPA Desk setup for 8 programs: $4,500 (up to 10 programs, + $350 per additional program).

They don’t move the dollar estimate above (no published study sizes their effect; your own earned, claimed and received numbers already carry it). They set the desk setup in the business case and the number of deadlines your team has to hit. For context: Half of distributors belong to a co-op or buying group. (Industrial Distribution, Jun 2025). According to Enable, a rebate-software company, 57% of buying-group members don’t know the rebate earned from each manufacturer. (Enable, 2022)

Leak gauge · bps of revenueRange 0–200

Likely annual leak $408K Range $235K – $599K

Leak 102 bps Tol 25 bps ● +77 out of tolerance

Break-even · share of the leak a program must recover

Your year-one program ($96,500 at list prices) must recover 24% of the likely leak (41% of the low end) to cover its cost.

Finding a leak is not collecting it. Recovery takes customer price moves, supplier claim cycles and your team’s time, so read this as the bar a program has to clear, not a promise it will. Build the business case: pick the program, the capture rate, and list prices or prices with the onboarding discount.

Book the Margin Diagnostic

Estimated annual leak: likely $408K, range $235K to $599K. The year-one program breaks even if you recover 24% of the likely estimate.

Where it leaks

Bars share one scale. The bright tick is the likely value; the band runs low to high. The first three are price-side (fixed by moving prices); the last two are claim cash from suppliers.

Stale costs Price side
$72.6K $27.6K – $138K

SKUs still priced off an old cost, so every sale carries the increase you never passed on.

$40.0M × 8% stale × 72.0% cost share × 6% increase, weighted
Pricing lag Price side
$134K $82.5K – $183K

Increases that did get priced, but late: every day between the vendor letter and your new price.

$40.0M × 72.0% cost share × share that rose × 6% × 60/365 days
Unbilled freight Price side
$71.8K $35.9K – $120K

Freight your own terms say the customer pays, shipped and never billed: prepaid-and-add orders with no freight line, small orders shipped free.

$40.0M × 1.3% freight cost × 46% not billed back × share your terms bill
Unclaimed rebates & SPAs Claim cash
$102K $72.0K – $120K

Credits your supplier programs owe you that were never claimed (earned minus claimed). See the Rebate & SPA Desk demo →

$600K earned − $480K claimed = $120K unclaimed
Claimed, not paid Claim cash
$27.5K $16.5K – $38.5K

Claims you filed that the supplier rejected or short-paid (claimed minus received). Some are the supplier’s right; the rest can be resubmitted or disputed.

$480K claimed − $425K received = $55.0K unpaid

For context, not a default: in a survey commissioned by Enable, a pricing and rebate software company, ≈60% of pricing leaders said price changes take weeks or months to put through (Industrial Distribution, Sep 2025). Your lag of 60 days puts the likely pricing-lag leak at 34 bps of revenue.

Same company, two instruments

Why the Margin X-Ray shows a different number.

This calculator · modeled · sample defaults $235K – $599K A range from averages and your inputs. It includes the margin lost during the lag on every increase this year (likely $134K), which is gone once prices catch up and does not sit on any single record.

Margin X-Ray · measured $273K Counts only what Meridian’s six sample files prove, record by record, today: $82.4K of claimable one-time cash and $191K that recurs every year until fixed. Rules nobody has confirmed stay out of its headline.

The measured number sits inside the modeled range. That is the point: estimate first, then measure your own files. Sample data · fictional distributor

The business case · your arithmetic, not our promise

What does it take to break even?

Pick a program and set a capture rate: the panel shows the share of your leak the program has to recover to cover its own cost, when the cash arrives, and what volume risk the price moves carry. Prices are our published starting-at prices. Capture, volume loss, the ramp and the claim-cash delay start at Illustrative values: set your own.

Program and assumptions

Year-one program Margin Diagnostic$5,000 one timeData Decision Sprint$15,000 one timeMargin Guard$3,500/mo × 12Rebate & SPA Desk$2,500/mo × 12 + setup

Rebate & SPA Desk setup for 8 programs: $4,500 (up to 10 programs, + $350 per additional program). Programs come from the rebate-program inputs in your numbers.

Prices List starting-at prices$96,500 With onboarding discount −20% · 12 mo$82,100

Onboarding discount: 20% off any desk for the first 12 months. It applies to monthly desk fees, not the desk setup; the Margin Diagnostic and the Data Decision Sprint stay at their starting-at prices. See the desks.

Capture rate: share of the likely leak actually recovered in a full year Illustrative

50%

After your rulings, customer price moves and supplier claim cycles. Your call, not ours.

Volume lost because of the price moves, % of revenue

Passing through a supplier’s cost increase usually carries less risk than an elective increase. Set what you expect.

Contribution margin (%)

Blank uses your gross margin: the cautious choice, since a true contribution margin is lower.

Supplier pays a claim after

Illustrative For context: David Gordon of Channel Marketing Group, writing in Electrical Trends, describes a “current standard of 30-day processing” for rebates, with tariffs pushing claims past it. (Electrical Trends, Mar 2025)

EBITDA, % of revenue (optional)

Valuation multiple (optional)

Break-even capture

24%of the likely leak · 41% of the low end

Year-one cost $96,500: one-time $24,500 (Diagnostic, Sprint, desk setup) + monthly desk fees $72,000. Year two, desk fees only at list: $72,000, break-even 18%.

Price-file margin recurring, net of volume loss: $139K
Supplier claim cash each program year, after the supplier pays: $64.8K
A full year at 50% capture, net of year-one cost: $107K

At this capture rate your price moves average 0.35% of revenue. Volume could fall 1.2% before they cost more than they return (price move ÷ (contribution margin + price move)).

12-month cash · bars = month, line = cumulative

Cumulative cash turns positive in month 7. To be cash-positive inside the first 12 months: capture 30%.

Diagnostic in month 1, Sprint in month 2, desk setup in month 1, desk fees every month. Price fixes ramp in after the Sprint (half in month 3, full from month 4) and claim cash is filed from month 2 and lands 2 month(s) later Illustrative. So year one’s cash lands later than the full-year break-even assumes.

Month-by-month table

Monthly cost, recovered margin, claim cash, net and cumulative cash
Month	Cost	Margin	Claims	Net	Cumulative
1	−$15.5K	$0	$0	−$15.5K	−$15.5K
2	−$21.0K	$0	$0	−$21.0K	−$36.5K
3	−$6.0K	$5.8K	$0	−$200	−$36.7K
4	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	−$25.7K
5	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	−$14.7K
6	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	−$3.7K
7	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$7.3K
8	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$18.3K
9	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$29.3K
10	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$40.3K
11	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$51.3K
12	−$6.0K	$11.6K	$5.4K	$11.0K	$62.3K

Add your EBITDA % to read the leak in the board’s unit.

Add a valuation multiple to see recurring margin × your multiple Illustrative arithmetic, not a valuation.

Size check · each desk against the leak it works on

Margin Guard $42,000 in year one against a likely $278K of the price-side leak (stale costs, pricing lag, unbilled freight): it must recover 15% of that leak on its own.
Rebate & SPA Desk $34,500 in year one against a likely $130K of the claim-side leak (unclaimed and unpaid rebates and SPA credits): it must recover 27% of that leak on its own.

Your arithmetic on your inputs and our published prices, not a guarantee of results. We prepare and check; your team decides every price and presses Send on every claim.

Context from published research · never a default

Your likely estimate: 70 bp of revenue price-side and 32 bp in rebates and SPAs; earned rebates and SPA credits are 1.5% of your revenue. For comparison only:

SPARXiQ’s David Bauders, writing for NAW, sizes the levers at 200–400 bp for price optimization, 100–200 bp for contracts and SPAs, and up to 100 bp for freight. NAW, Dec 2024
According to David Bauders of SPARXiQ, a pricing firm, writing for NAW, distributor sales forces underclaim rebates by about 30%. NAW, Dec 2023
Typically only about 70% of freight cost is recovered, according to SPARXiQ’s David Bauders, writing for NAW. NAW, Dec 2021
Bain’s survey of 1,263 companies found pricing leaders earn a 5–11 point margin advantage. Bain & Company, Apr 2025
Wesco booked supplier volume rebate income equal to 1.4% of net sales in 2025. One public company, not an industry average. U.S. SEC filing (Form 10-K), Feb 2026
The counterweight: in the NAW and MDM study “In Pursuit of Value”, 16% have achieved a 2%+ margin gain from pricing AI and 65% see no measurable improvement. Findings without rulings, and rulings without checks, change nothing. Modern Distribution Management, May 2026

10-second self-check · no data

Which of these is your file?

Tick what sounds like your business. Nothing you tick leaves this page.

Some supplier lines have no list price (net-price sheets)We buy in cases and sell eachThe same part comes from two suppliersSupplier increases arrive as PDF letters, not filesReps override prices at order entrySome contracts have no end date

The Margin X-Ray checks all six of these. Here is what it runs for each, and the export that unlocks it.

Some supplier lines have no list price (net-price sheets) #3 Off the line’s own pricing rule · #2 Stale cost vs the supplier’s file Unlocked by Your price file: item, supplier, cost, cost date and sell price (a supplier list column is optional) In the calculator Not estimated here: the X-Ray measures it record by record.
We buy in cases and sell each #9 UOM or pack error Unlocked by Your price file with the pack quantity (yours and the supplier’s) In the calculator Not estimated here: the X-Ray measures it record by record.
The same part comes from two suppliers #10 Same part under two suppliers, two prices Unlocked by Your price file with the manufacturer part number or UPC In the calculator Carries over as a starting point: stale costs up 2 points (one of the two costs is usually old). Illustrative, not a finding.
Supplier increases arrive as PDF letters, not files #1 Supplier increase not passed through · #2 Stale cost vs the supplier’s file · #22 Price increase didn’t land on invoices Unlocked by Your price file with cost-change dates, plus invoice history to see whether the increase reached invoices In the calculator Carries over as a starting point: pricing lag at least 90 days and stale costs at least 12% (a letter has to be read and keyed before a price moves). Illustrative, not a finding.
Reps override prices at order entry #11 Override leakage · #35 Period-end discount spillover Unlocked by Invoice history with the system price (or an override flag) and the rep In the calculator Not estimated here: the X-Ray measures it record by record.
Some contracts have no end date #30 Contract with no end date · #7 Expired contract still in use Unlocked by Your contract / SPA file with start and end dates In the calculator Not estimated here: the X-Ray measures it record by record.

For context on the PDF letters: writing in Modern Distribution Management, the CEO of Intuilize, a pricing-software company, estimates that a supplier cost change keyed by hand takes 7–14 days to load.

Run the Margin X-Ray on your file

The assumptions · every one editable

Low · Likely · High

Each leak uses a range, not a point. Change any number; the gauge moves. Values are percentages.

Assumptions behind the estimate, with low, likely and high values and their sources
Assumption	Low	Likely	High	Source
Revenue weight of stale-cost SKUsShare of revenue carried by the stale SKUs, relative to their share of SKU count. Stale costs tend to sit on slower movers, so this is below 100%.	Revenue weight of stale-cost SKUs, low	Revenue weight of stale-cost SKUs, likely	Revenue weight of stale-cost SKUs, high	Illustrative
Share of the year a stale cost goes unfixedIf nobody finds a stale cost, the gap runs all year (100%). Some get caught mid-year.	Share of the year a stale cost goes unfixed, low	Share of the year a stale cost goes unfixed, likely	Share of the year a stale cost goes unfixed, high	Illustrative
Share of purchases that saw a cost increase this yearOur round number. For context: MDM's 2Q26 research found costs changing through three channels at once (vendor letters, freight surcharges, rebate changes), and 91% of respondents to the 2Q26 Baird-NAW survey raised prices. It does not give a share of purchases, so set this from your own records.	Share of purchases that saw a cost increase this year, low	Share of purchases that saw a cost increase this year, likely	Share of purchases that saw a cost increase this year, high	Illustrative Context for Share of purchases that saw a cost increase this year (opens the source in a new tab)
Share of the unclaimed rebate / SPA gap that is real moneyOur round number. Some of the gap is timing (claims in flight) or an estimate of "earned" that is too high. For context: according to Enable, a rebate-software company, 60% of manufacturers and distributors do not trust their rebate data (2025).	Share of the unclaimed rebate / SPA gap that is real money, low	Share of the unclaimed rebate / SPA gap that is real money, likely	Share of the unclaimed rebate / SPA gap that is real money, high	Illustrative Context for Share of the unclaimed rebate / SPA gap that is real money (opens the source in a new tab)
Share of claimed-but-unpaid money you can still collectOur round number. Some rejections and short-pays are the supplier’s right (a window closed, a quantity cap used up); the rest can be resubmitted with the missing proof, or disputed.	Share of claimed-but-unpaid money you can still collect, low	Share of claimed-but-unpaid money you can still collect, likely	Share of claimed-but-unpaid money you can still collect, high	Illustrative
Share of unbilled freight your own terms say the customer paysSome unbilled freight is a free-freight promise you meant to make. Only the part your terms say the customer pays (prepaid and add, orders under your free-freight minimum) is a leak. For context: typically only about 70% of freight cost is recovered, according to SPARXiQ’s David Bauders writing for NAW (Dec 2021).	Share of unbilled freight your own terms say the customer pays, low	Share of unbilled freight your own terms say the customer pays, likely	Share of unbilled freight your own terms say the customer pays, high	Illustrative Context for Share of unbilled freight your own terms say the customer pays (opens the source in a new tab)
Gauge tolerance lineWhere the dial turns red, in basis points of revenue. Set your own.	Gauge tolerance line in basis points			Illustrative

From estimate to measurement

This is a range. Your file has the number.

The calculator works from averages. The Margin Diagnostic measures your real price file, vendor costs, invoice history and rebate programs, finds each leak by SKU, and ranks the fixes in dollars. You decide what changes; you load the import file.

An estimate from the numbers you entered and the assumptions above, not a guarantee of results. We only claim what we measure.

Margin Diagnostic

$5,000 starting at

A two-week margin X-ray of your real price file: every leak, sized, with the fix list.

Book the Margin Diagnostic Try the Margin X-Ray first

Watching costs move right now? Replay 2026 shows the lag month by month.

Sources

Where the numbers come from

MDM — Research: Your Costs Changed in 3 Places During 2Q26. Your Pricing Changed Once. (Baird-NAW survey figures; column by a pricing-software CEO)
NAW (SPARXiQ series, by David Bauders of the pricing firm SPARXiQ), Dec 2021 — The Growing Impact of Freight Recovery
Industrial Distribution — Tariffs affecting profits and likely to lead to increased prices, survey shows (Sep 2025)According to Enable, a pricing and rebate software company: ≈60% say price changes take weeks or months. Context only; no default is built on it. Read the finding.
Industrial Distribution — The truth about volume rebates (Jan 2025)According to Enable, a pricing and rebate software company: 60% do not trust their rebate data. Context only; no default is built on it. Read the finding.
Modern Distribution Management — Large distributors are gaining pricing power 6X faster than you (Jun 2026)Pricing power is weaker than a year ago for 33% of distributors under $100M, against 6% of those over $500M. Baird-MDM survey figures, reported in a column by the CEO of Intuilize, a pricing-software company. Context only; no default is built on it.
Modern Distribution Management — Vendor costs are eating your margin (Jun 2026)13% of distributors under $100M say they cannot pass increases through at all. 1Q26 Baird-MDM survey (143 respondents), reported in a column by the CEO of Intuilize, a pricing-software company. Context only; no default is built on it.
NAW — Strategic pricing: the key to sustainable growth (Dec 2023)According to David Bauders of SPARXiQ, a pricing firm, writing for NAW, distributor sales forces underclaim rebates by about 30%. Context only; no default is built on it.
NAW — 12 profit competencies for a more profitable new year (Dec 2024)SPARXiQ’s David Bauders, writing for NAW, sizes the levers at 200–400 bp for price optimization, 100–200 bp for contracts and SPAs, and up to 100 bp for freight. Context only; no default is built on it.
NAW — The growing impact of freight recovery (Dec 2021)Typically only about 70% of freight cost is recovered, according to SPARXiQ’s David Bauders, writing for NAW. Context only; no default is built on it.
Bain & Company — Expanding profit margin through intelligent pricing (Apr 2025)Bain’s survey of 1,263 companies found pricing leaders earn a 5–11 point margin advantage. Context only; no default is built on it.
U.S. SEC filing (Form 10-K) — Wesco International annual report, fiscal 2025 (Feb 2026)Wesco booked supplier volume rebate income equal to 1.4% of net sales in 2025. One public company, not an industry average. Context only; no default is built on it.
Industrial Distribution — Shifting workforce winds (78th Survey of Distributor Operations) (Jun 2025)Half of distributors belong to a co-op or buying group. Context only; no default is built on it.
Enable — The annual state of volume rebates for distributors (2022)According to Enable, a rebate-software company, 57% of buying-group members don’t know the rebate earned from each manufacturer. Context only; no default is built on it.
Electrical Trends — The impact of tariffs on ship-and-debit SPA programs (Mar 2025)David Gordon of Channel Marketing Group, writing in Electrical Trends, describes a “current standard of 30-day processing” for rebates, with tariffs pushing claims past it. Context only; no default is built on it.
IllustrativeThe fictional distributors’ inputs ($40M and $15M) and the “not sure” estimate’s starting values; the stale-SKU revenue weight; the share of the year a stale cost goes unfixed; the share of purchases that saw an increase; the share of the unclaimed gap that is real money; the share of unpaid claims you can still collect; the share of unbilled freight your terms bill; the gauge tolerance line; and, in the business case, the capture rate, the volume loss, the price-fix ramp, the claim-cash delay and the quarterly claim cadence are round, plausible numbers, not research findings. Edit them. Program prices are our published starting-at prices. As of 17 Oct 2026.